SPATIO-TEMPORAL MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF PHYSICAL URBAN DEVELOPMENT OF PART OF NIKE, ENUGU, NIGERIA USING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS

V Nnam, U Okonkwo, C Onwuzuligbo

Abstract


One of the major catalysts of physical urban development is the activities of the teeming population of rural-urban migrants. Spatial-Temporal monitoring and prediction of Physical Urban development is the assessment of the rate at which an urban area grows over a period of time. This work monitored the rate of urban development in part of Nike, Enugu East local government area, Enugu state in Nigeria, with focus on its land use/land cover; predicted the future development; and from the results of the study, recommend strategies for the mitigation of the anticipated challenges. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were employed in the monitoring of the area for a period of 28 years (1997 to 2018) and a prediction period of 21 years (2018 to 2039) using Statistical Regression Analysis. Supervised (Full Gaussian) classification was applied using the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm in ILWIS Academic 3.2 to generate five main land use/land cover classes for all the remotely sensed images used. The five classes used were built up areas, agricultural areas, light forest, thick forest and water body. The four images (30meters resolution) used were the 1997Landsat 5 TM, 2004 Landsat 7 ETM, 2011 Landsat 7 ETM+ and 2018 Landsat 8. The percentage land cover for built up area in 1997, 2004, 2011 and 2018 were 5.45%, 11.71%, 15.00%, and 39.32% respectively while the regression prediction results for 2025, 2032, and 2039 were66.66%, 104.24% and 150.85%respectively. These results show fast and exponential changes, which serves as an early warning for overflowing slum development. The results are recommended as verified statistics with which government will plan and make policies to mitigate the anticipated slum challenges that will come with the predicted changes in physical urban development in the study area.

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