Altitudinal Estimation and Modeling of Wind Shear Association with Flight Opera-tions at two selected International Airports in Nigeria

Abstract

The aviation industry experiences a significant setback due to its heavy dependence on weather amid escalating global un-certainty. The study estimated wind shear to 100m above ground level and modeled its association with flight operations at Murtala Mohammed and Port Harcourt International Airports, Nigeria. The data were obtained from the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The study employed Pearson's product-moment correlation and regression methods. The number of flight diversions, delays, and cancellations is positively and insignificantly related to wind shear extrapolated at 100 meters above ground level at Murtala Mohammed International Airport. At Port Harcourt Airport, results demonstrate a positive but negligible association between wind shear extrapolated at 100 meters above ground level and the number of flight diversions and delays. In contrast, wind shear and flight cancellations are negative but insignificantly related. The best regression relationship between wind shear at 100m above ground level and the number of flight diversions and delays is exponential at Murtala Mohammed Airport. The relationship between wind shear at 100m above ground level and the number of flight cancellations is quadratic. The best regression relationship between wind shear extrapolated at 100m above ground level and the number of flight diversions, delays, and cancellations at Port Harcourt Airport is cubic. The study proposes consistent wind shear observation at the airports, and steady forecasts utilizing the models. It also calls for additional research on wind shear, particularly in Nigeria and other tropical areas.

Keywords: Altitude; Modeling; Wind Shear; Weather Uncertainty; Flights; Climate Change.